2008 Projection: Livan Hernandez March 3rd, 2008 at 8:51 pm
Let’s continue on with the 2008 player projections. We’re working through the pitching staff right now, and then we’ll move onto the hitters. Today, we get a look at Livan Hernandez, whom the Twins signed late in the offseason to a 1 year $5 million contract. I already gave a rundown of him in early February when the deal went down, so if you find you can just never get enough Livan talk, be sure to read that.
I’ll continue the trend of starting off with his ‘08 ZiPS projection and stats from the last two years:
| Year | Age | ERA | W | L | INN | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 ZiPS | 33 | 5.55 | 7 | 14 | 193.0 | 31 | 75 | 103 |
| 2007 | 32 | 4.70 | 11 | 11 | 204.3 | 34 | 79 | 90 |
| 2006 | 31 | 4.83 | 13 | 13 | 216.0 | 29 | 78 | 128 |
I find these projections to be somewhat interesting—mainly because it’s unlikely his season could ever play out that way. If he’s posting a 5.55 ERA and losing 2 games for every win, he’s probably not going to be in the rotation long enough to amass 193 innings. Actually, I think that’s exactly how the season will play out for Livan— he’s going to lose his job before the All-Star break.
The reasons for this are many:
- He’s getting old, and he’s likely older than his listed age of 33. He’s logged a ton of innings over his career and that eventually takes it’s toll.
- He’s been very hittable the past couple years. He stats have been on a continuous decline since 2004. He’s allowing more runs and striking out fewer and fewer batters.
- He’s making his first move to the American league, considered by many to be the better offensive league.
At this point, he’s likely to fit into the Twins’ rotation at the #3 or 4 spot behind Scott Baker, Francisco Liriano and maybe Boof Bonser. Signing Livan Hernandez is a move that still makes little sense to me, but I’m not at all surprised that the Twins made the move. The only reason I’m only confused and not outraged by the signing is that there’s no clear alternative for his rotation spot. Yes, the Twins do have other options, but none that couldn’t still benefit from another month or two of seasoning in Rochester.
Other 2008 projections
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