2008 Projection: Scott Baker March 2nd, 2008 at 2:35 pm
Welcome to the first of what will be a series of projections of Twins players, one-by-one, as the start of the 2008 season approaches. I’ll be starting with pitchers and then move on to the hitters. Expect 1 or 2 to be released each day for the next couple weeks.
First, let’s take a looks at Scott Baker’s 2008 ZiPS projection and see how he faired the past two seasons.
| Year | Age | ERA | W | L | INN | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 ZiPS | 26 | 4.50 | 11 | 12 | 186.0 | 24 | 39 | 127 |
| 2007 | 25 | 4.26 | 9 | 9 | 143.7 | 15 | 29 | 102 |
| 2006 | 24 | 6.37 | 5 | 8 | 83.3 | 17 | 16 | 62 |
Baker is perhaps the definition of how the Twins have changed from 2007 to 2008. In 2007 Baker didn’t make the active roster out of spring training and toiled in the minors for nearly two months. He was finally called up on May 19th to replace Sideney Ponson and threw a gem in Milwaukee, nearly going a complete game before allowing a home run in the ninth inning. Fast forward 1 year and he’s the leading candidate to be the opening day starter against the Angels on March 31st.
Baker pitched his best after the all-star break when he posted a 3.44 ERA and a 6-6 record compared to his 5.71 ERA in the first half of the season. I often criticized the Twins for jerking him around and not giving him an adequate chance to settle in at the major league level. In 2007, Baker got an extended chance to prove that he should be a starter at the big-league level—and he did just that.
He’s certainly not an ace, but he projects to be a quality #3 or #4 starter for the Twins—that is once they’re able to find solid #1 and #2 starters.
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3 Comments
Kris wrote: March 3rd, 2008 at 8:29 pm
The Twins offense was pretty futile last year, especially as the season winded down. I'm not convinced the offense will be much better this year though. They lost Torii Hunter and Jason Bartlett and effectively replaced them with Delmon Young and Adam Everett. I'd say that's an offensive downgrade, unless Young has a breakout year.
I agree though, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Baker with a winning record, especially if he pitchers as well as he did in the second half of '07.
pete wrote: March 3rd, 2008 at 11:43 pm
Remember, they are replacing nick punto's bat with mike lambs. That'll account for something
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chris wrote: March 3rd, 2008 at 2:06 pm
I would expect that his win/loss number will be better this year. Remember this guy was one of the top pitching prospects in baseball a few years back, and I think that the offense is going to be better than last year, so even if the twins lose more games, baker's starts should equal more wins. He looked exceptional for much of the second half last year.