2008 Projection: Justin Morneau March 24th, 2008 at 11:20 pm

By Kris Richardson

After leading off on with Joe Mauer for the hitter projections, we’ll keep moving around the diamond to Justin Morneau, who signed a 6-year $80 million contract in the offseason.

Year	Age	AB	BA	OBP	SLG	HR	BB	K	SB
2008 ZiPS	27	598	.283	.355	.527	36	65	102	1
2007	26	590	.271	.343	.492	31	64	91	1
2006	25	592	.321	.375	.559	34	53	93	3

Morneau followed up his 2006 MVP season with a relatively lackluster 2007. He still managed to belt 31 home runs and drive in 111 runs, but his numbers dropped in just about every category but walks, which he has steadily managed to improve throughout his career.

The biggest knock on Morneau has been his proclivity to tail off at the end of the season. After belting 28 home runs in April through July of 2007, he manged just 3 in the final two months of the season and batted in the low .200s. While in 2006, he kept his batting average up all season, his power numbers also tailed off in the final two months of the season, with just 6 of his 34 coming in the final two months of the season.

Interestingly, in 2006 it didn’t matter much whether he was facing a lefty or a righty. In 2007, lefties held him to 8 homeruns in 202 at bats and just a .228 batting average. Perhaps both seasons were a bit extreme on their respective ends, so if he can find the happy medium in 2008, that should be just fine.

Morneau’s average to slightly above average defensive ability at first only makes him more valuable. Except when balls find his head, injuries haven’t been much of an issue for Morneau and he’s in the lineup just about every day. If he can find a way to avoid the late-season slump he’ll leave no one doubting that he’s worth every penny of the $80 million the Twins will pay him.