2008 Projection: Jesse Crain March 16th, 2008 at 11:30 am

By Kris Richardson

Jesse Crain is next on the list as I work through the remainder of the bullpen for the 2008 projections series. Crain is working his way back from 2007 shoulder surgery and so far hasn’t had much luck this spring. Here are his projected and recent numbers:

Year	Age	ERA	W	L	INN	HR	BB	K
2008 ZiPS	26	3.80	7	5	71.0	7	22	44
2007	25	5.51	1	2	16.3	4	4	10
2006	24	3.52	4	5	76.7	6	18	60

Crain was sidelined in mid-May last season with a torn labrum and rotator cuff. He had become a mainstay in the Twins’ bullpen after in 2006 he was able to control his walks and dramatically increase his strikeout totals. He struggled early in 2007 before it became apparent that he was pitching with some discomfort. He spent the remainder of the season recovering from shoulder surgery.

The success rate for pitchers coming back from the type of surgery Crain had is typically not as good as good as those that have the type of surgery Francisco Liriano is coming back from.

Because Crain relied on his mid-to-upper 90s fastball to get hitters out, his outlook for 2008 probably isn’t good. I have yet to hear reports of his velocity this spring, but typically pitchers don’t regain that when returning from rotator cuff surgery.

Crain has thrown just two innings this spring and in a recent minor-league level appearance he took a line drive off his knee. Nothing was broken, but it only sets him back further as he tries to work back from the injury.

Other 2008 projections

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3 Comments

brad wrote: March 16th, 2008 at 5:04 pm

Aren't you being a little generous with those stats here? I am done even reading these projections. Don't know how i found this pathetic site anways. I am mad at myself for wasting 5 mins of my life reading your bs. Crain's awful and chances of him doing anything after the surgery are next to nothing.

Kris wrote: March 18th, 2008 at 11:40 am

Brad, I appreciate your comment and any dissent you have with the content on the site. Let's stay away from the useless personal attacks though, ok?

I don't come up with the ZiPS projections. It's a popular system based on regression analysis developed by Baseball Think Factory. Historically, it's one of the most accurate projection systems, but obviously there are exceptions. It doesn't factor in things unknown by past numbers (such as injury).

That's the reason I add my commentary below. I agree with you that the chances of Crain returning to that level are slim, and if you'd continued reading past the table, you'd have seen that.