2008 Projection: Francisco Liriano

Published: Mar 03, 2008 7:00 AM

This is a continuation of the 2008 player projections series. We're currently working through the pitchers and today we find ourselves looking at Francisco Liriano who is working his way back onto the Twins roster after missing all of 2007 rehabbing from Tommy John surgery.

Year Age ERA W L INN HR BB K
2008 ZiPS 24 3.42 13 7 166.0 18 46 178
2007 23 Did not play
2006 22 2.16 12 3 121.0 9 32 144

The Twins are a team full of question marks, but Liriano is likely the biggest one—for no other reasons than that he's the Twins' most exciting player and the one with the biggest upside. In 2006 Liriano was the most dominant pitcher in baseball for the months of May through July, until elbow injuries derailed his season and the early portion of his career. Despite missing the last two months of the season (and not entering the rotation until May), he made the all-star team and finished 3rd in AL rookie of the year voting.

History has shown that the comeback from Tommy John surgery is a slow one and sometimes you never really come back (i.e., Joe Mays), however very many come back to be great pitchers (i.e., Erik Bedard). Because Liriano had the surgery in late 2006 and then had the full 2007 season to rehab, he could become a success story sooner than later.

Regardless, no one should expect to see the same unhittable Liriano on the mound in 2008. The Twins will also certainly be cautious of his pitch counts throughout the season and the mix of pitches he's throwing to hitters (limit the slider, for example).

If Liriano can bounce back, he's the ace the Twins need to replace Johan Santana. So far, all indications from spring training are that his velocity is back and he feels good. Let's hope that's true.

Other 2008 projections


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